Why do I think the Jays will get better, like a lot better?
Pretty much everybody is due to improve. The following is a list of player who have got on base at or above their career averages so far:
Jose Reyes (injured)
Adam Lind (at the cost of anything resembling power)
Munenori Kawasaki (his career includes this year, and 65 games last year)
That’s it. And it includes everyone who has had a plate appearance for the Jays, not just starters.
Oh, and every starting pitcher has an xFIP at or better than their career average. I don’t know, that seems unsustainable to me.
The fact that essentially everyone is on a cold streak at the same time is bad enough luck. You can usually string things along is one or two guys are struggling. If a pitcher or two are off you still pull out a few wins with good offensive games.
But when everyone is struggling you simply can’t. And that’s when everything gets magnified. Every little play – an error, key strikeout, an RA Dickey to Lyle-fucking-Overbay – suddenly has that much more weight.
Now sure, some of the players are older and shouldn’t be expected to play at their career averages. But really, the only players in that situation are Henry Blanco, Mark Derosa and Mark Buerhle. I could live with that.
Not everyone struggling.
I think what the worry is, is that with everyone being cold right now you’re going to see everyone get hot at the same time, have a month where they go 22-5 and win by 10 each game, and then everything stables out and you end up with an 85 win team.
Yeah, they need to start winning soon. I would almost guarantee they’re going to go on a run (I’m a cautious man so that’s pretty big for me). What I don’t know is when that will be, and if it will be good enough to offset what has happened so far.