So how do the 2015 Blue Jays compare to last year’s team? The bullpen

So continues my look at how the Jays stack up heading into 2015 over what they were last year.

The Bullpen

Uh, yeah.

Some would argue Toronto’s bullpen in 2014 was a bit of a disappointment. And those people would be drastically understating things.

It’s weird. We went into 2013 already planning the parade. On the heels of the Jeff Mathis Trade Jays fans figured they just had to wait a few months before celebrating the team’s third World Series victory in franchise history. The team supposedly had a fantastic rotation that was only rivaled by its offensive weapons.

Nobody cared much about the bullpen. We’ve got Josh Johnson for crying out loud!

Of course, in a cruel twist of fate that season quickly went down the tubes and the bullpen that had the sixth worst ERA and second worst FIP in all of baseball the previous year was the only bright spot in an otherwise dismal season.

So fast forward to 2014 and everyone thought the bullpen would be a strength. If the starters can just be decent, many argued, manager John Gibbons could turn things over to the bullpen and we’d be good to go.

Yeah, about that.

The Toronto bullpen returned to the cellar in 2014, pitching to a 4.09 ERA, 4.05 FIP and 4.00 xFIP. So, by every measure they were pretty bad.

And the worst part is: everyone hopes the one true bright spot in the 2014 bullpen will not be spending any time back there once the first pitch is thrown. Aaron Sanchez is likely to start the season in the starting rotation. Gibbons was forced to use the rookie more than probably he or anyone in the organization wanted to last year.

So how do you fix a broken bullpen? Apparently you move your set up guy to the rotation, let your closer go and do nothing else.

The Jays let Casey Janssen, who had handled closing duties for much of the past few years, go to free agency and there appears little chance he’ll return to Toronto. Janssen performed admirably for Toronto as closer, using pinpoint control to offset what was otherwise very pedestrian stuff. A bout of food poisoning during the 2014 all star break was to blame for a second half swoon, but there were plenty of red flags before his tummy ache that suggest his days as an elite reliever may be over.

But we’re getting away from the main point of this little exercise, which of course is to consider how the team’s bullpen compares to last year’s iteration.

With Janssen gone and Sanchez expected to fill a spot in the rotation, that’s about 90 high leverage innings that need to be replaced. In-house options include Aaron Loup and Brett Cecil, two lefties who have been quite strong for the team the past couple years.

Also gone from the team are Dustin McGowan and Sergio Santos. McGowan was decent but unspectacular as a middle reliever last year, while Santos continued to show fantastic stuff but a complete unwillingness to actually get batters out.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see old Dusty Lambchops re-sign with the team but Santos has signed on with the Dodgers, and really, will anyone miss him?

Marco Estrada came over from the Brewers in Adam Lind trade. After struggling as a starter in 2014 Estrada was moved to the bullpen and performed quite well, pitching to a 2.89 ERA, and holding batters to a .269 wOBA. He’s likely being penciled in as at least a fairly high leverage righty reliever.

Other names that merit a mention are Steve Delabar and Kyle Drabek. After two strong seasons in Toronto’s bullpen, Delabar fell apart last year, ending up in AAA Buffalo to work out the kinks. By all accounts his stuff was still good, but he completely lost control of his pitches, leading to a devilish 6.66 BB/9.

Drabek, meanwhile, was moved to the bullpen partway through last year while attempting to make his way back from Tommy John Jr. surgery. Doug’s kid certainly fits the reliever mould, and given he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues next year I’m sure he’ll be given every opportunity to make the team.

Chad Jenkins and Todd Redmond remain on the squad, but neither are really considered much more than innings eater, middle relief types.

So bottom line: they need someone to be a high leverage reliever. There are a few possibilities internally. GM Alex Anthopoulos claimed a few players off waivers, including Scott Barnes and Preston Guilmet.

Another name I’ve heard mentioned is Ryan Tepera. Over at Clutchlings, Tepera was briefly profiled as one of the team’s minor leaguers who could contribute. He found success after being moved to the bullpen heading into 2014, and apparently throws mid-90s. He struck out 9.42 per nine innings at AAA last year and pitched to a 3.66 ERA, so he’s…something. Unfortunately, the Clutchlings article was about the only recent thing I could find on Tepera, which doesn’t lead to a ton of optimism.

In the article Miguel Castro and Chad Jenkins are other names offered up. I’ve had my eye on Castro for a while, I remember reading good things from him from some writers in Vancouver last year when he was pitching in the Northwest League, but it’s hard to see him making the same strides Sanchez did in 2014. It’s just not terribly common. And even if he does that Jays are going to want somebody good to go right from April, so Castro doesn’t work for my little exercise.

Jenkins is, well, I don’t know. He’s done well in stints with the Jays, but just doesn’t seem like the kind of guy you’d rely on.

My ’15 dark horse in #bluejays bullpen is spring invitee Gregory Infante one of 52 @BaseballAmerica to throw 100 mph in ’14. Was at NH/Buff

— Richard Griffin (@RGriffinStar) December 31, 2014

Richard Griffin, from the Toronto Star, said Gregory Infante is someone to watch. He did put up some numbers in New Hampshire and Buffalo last year, so…maybe?

The Verdict

I can’t in good conscience say the 2015 bullpen is better or even as good as last year’s. They lost their closer to free agency and likely have lost their other top righty reliever to the bullpen. So far they’ve replaced those players with Marco Estrada and some guys I’d never heard of until they were claimed by AA.

But two things here. First, so far is actually a pretty important part of things. While most of the big name free agents are off the board, including the #Proven closers, there are still quite a few names left. They’re not sexy names at all, but guys like Burke Badenhop, Joba Chamberlain and Jesse Crain have all had success in the past. And based on MjwW’s work over at Bluebird Banter, there’s reason to believe AA will acquire a reliever or two before spring training.

The second thing: bullpens are just so damned fickle. Relievers and entire bullpens fluctuate from year to year, with no rhyme or reason to it. The introduction to this article is evidence of that. Having said that, though, there’s been more bad than good for the Jays since Anthopoulos took over. The Blue Jays have the seventh worst bullpen ERA since AA became GM. The team’s FIP and SIERA aren’t impressive either, clocking in at the second and tenth worst in all of baseball, respectively, over that time.

So while things currently look kind of dire as far as the bullpen goes, and the team doesn’t have a strong history in building strong bullpens, I just simply can’t be arsed into worrying about it all that much. Analysis!

The New Big Three

In the world of prospects, it’s funny how a year or two can change things.

Before the Jeff Mathis trade, the Jays boasted a trio of young pitchers, Justin Nicolino, Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez, who were known as The Big Three. They were supposed to be the future rotation for the team.

Now, two of those three pitchers are gone. The lone survivor, Sanchez, just got promoted to AAA. 

When the Marlins trade, and subsequent Dickey trade, happened, it was a clear signal the Jays were going all in, as the expense of the future. They gave up some young promising pieces in exchanged for proven and costly veterans.

Then last year happened and things started to look scary. The big league team struggled. Syndergaard took big steps forward with the Mets, while Sanchez sort of spun his wheels. Going into this year the most pessimistic among us looked at the team and said, “look, the Jays suck. Their farm system now sucks. We’re screwed!”

Funny, that. Entering the midway point of the season, the Jays are in first place. They’ve got a legit shot at making the postseason for the first time in two decades. 

And to top it all off, there is, in a way, a new Big Three, sort of. The Jays still boast three young pitchers who could all anchor a strong rotation in the near future. I say it’s sort of a Big Three for a couple reasons. First, they’re not all at the same level like Nicolino-Syndergaard-Sanchez. Second, because one of them isn’t big at all.

So here I present, the new Big Three. Aaron Sanchez returns, though his place as the crown jewel of the triumvirate is up for debate. He’s made it to AAA Buffalo recently, albeit the moved raised more than a few eyebrows. His first start with the Bisons wasn’t great, but still, as I argued earlier, it’s a good sign to see him moving up the ranks.

The second of the new Big Three is already in the bigs. In 18 innings as a starter with the Jays, Marcus Stroman has looked strong, pitching to a 2.42 FIP, striking out 8.5 per nine innings and walking only one per nine.

Finally, with a promotion today to AA New Hampshire, I dub Daniel Norris the final member of the Big Three 2.0. I have an irrational fandom of Norris, who I’ve never seen pitch. He’s always seemed to me as someone who had great stuff and just needed to harness it. Well, it looks like he has. In the past calender year he’s put up a 1.66 ERA, 2.34 FIP, striking out more than 10 per nine, and walking fewer than three per nine.

The fact those three are now in AA or higher is huge. It’s often said prospects aren’t considered legit until they reach AA. It’s a lot easier to dream on those players some some guys three-plus steps away from the Major Leagues. If Norris does well down the stretch in New Hampshire the Jays’ farm system will regain a lot of its former shine. 

Those three pitchers can also provide a lot of cheap innings, if they pan out, for the team in coming years.

Add in the fact the team had, what many call, the best draft among any organization this year, and the farm system appears to be quickly replenishing itself. 

The big league team. as it currently stands, is built to compete this year and next before some serious decisions will have to be made. Give those players another year of development and the team could simply be looking for a quick retool come 2016 instead of a complete rebuild.

When access to the numbers isn’t better

This is my first post since returning from my trip, and I really should be posting something about how crazy the baseball landscape changed when I was away.

However, I’m gonna talk about Aaron Sanchez. Just cause.

Sanchez got called up to AAA today, and as is the case with all uber-prospects, it’s attracted a lot of attention. Some convinced now we’ll see him in the rotation sooner rather than later. Others thinking it’s a showcase for some trade. Many saying he’s being rushed because his walk numbers stink.

While I love looking at the numbers of minor leaguers, I do it probably once a week for every affiliate of the Jays, I continuously remind myself that they’re just numbers and I haven’t actually seen these players play.

And that’s big. When we watch players we do gain some information that we can’t get from the numbers. Yes, we can take that too far. Watching players can lead to only remembering the great (or terrible) plays they make and can cloud our judgments of said player. JA Happ, for instance, constantly gets shit on as a terrible pitcher. That’s become a thing, and people often only take note when he does struggle. But the truth is, he’s a decent number five pitcher. Then we look at some of his numbers and realize he actually has been ok.

But it can go the other way too. We look at Sanchez’s walk rates and say, “he’s not ready. He needs to improve his control. Blah blah blah.”

What we don’t know is how he’s looked. Perhaps he’s run into some tight strike zones. Perhaps the team’s only been looking for a mechanical change, and that change has finally been implemented.

So at the end of the take take this news the only way we can: it’s a promotion and one step closer to the big leagues.